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Every Derby day has its million-dollar question as a field of lightly raced three-year-olds sets off more in hope than expectation to try to etch their name in history as the latest winner of the 2500-metre classic, a race that pre-dates the Melbourne Cup by five years.
Since the development of the Golden Slipper more than 50 years ago, the Australian breeding industry has skewed its production line more towards the development of faster, quicker, more precocious stock.
When a group of young gallopers sets out over such a trip that the Derby contenders face on Saturday, few have the genes - on paper at least - to stay the distance, so who can predict with any accuracy what is going to happen?
Yes, this year there is a raging hot favourite in Gai Waterhouse's Hampton Court, a son of Australian super sire Redoute's Choice. But there is no guarantee that the colt, a group 1 winner of the Spring Champion Stakes over 2000 metres in race-record time last start, will see out the final 500 metres.
If he does, he is the most likely winner. But there are plenty opposing who are prepared to gamble that he won't.
Craig Newitt, rider of the Mick Price-trained Moonovermanhattan, believes that if the favourite is there to be beaten, then his mount has a better chance than most of taking the blue-ribbon event.
Moonovermanhattan won the Vase at Moonee Valley last weekend over 2040 metres, so he has proved that he can at least get a middle distance: the issue for him, like the rest, is will he get the last gruelling two and a half furlongs?
Newitt can't say for sure, but is optimistic that the son of Manhattan Rain (who stayed well enough to run third in the Cox Plate as a three-year-old) will do himself justice.
"They are all in the same boat in this race, but what is in my horse's favour is that he relaxes. The horse will switch off and give himself a chance," Newitt said.
"Gai's horse has gone and done it top-level already in Sydney when he won over 2000 metres and beat a couple of pretty smart ones that day [First Seal and Sweynesse ran second and third on that occasion], but I think as he matures my horse will be one that does end up racing at the elite level.
"He's always had good ability. Not many horses can win a stakes race at their first start [Moonovermanhattan did so at Morphettville in the Darley National Stakes for two-year-olds last May] and he's been getting better as the distances have got longer.
"He won with a bit of authority in the Vase last week [when he scored by 1.8 lengths from several of Saturday's rivals] and that is one of the better traditional lead-up races," Newitt said.
"I thought his run at Caulfield in the Guineas [seventh behind Shooting To Win, beaten just under four lengths] wasn't too disappointing as he wasn't quite sharp enough over the 1600 metres against the specialist milers."
Where the vagaries of breeding are concerned, few have the experience of Newitt, who was the regular partner of that sprinting superstar Miss Andretti, an Australian horse of the year and Royal Ascot winner.
Miss Andretti was by a stallion best over staying trips (Ihtiram) out of a mare by the Sydney Cup winner Marooned: on paper she should have come into her own at 2400 metres-plus and been a Melbourne Cup contender, whereas she was, arguably, the fastest horse in the world over 1000-1200 metres during her 2006-07 heyday.
"Breeding is on paper. I am aware from my own experiences that it isn't everything," Newitt observed wryly. "Sometimes horses defy their breeding. Miss Andretti certainly did, and I hope and think Moonovermanhattan will."
Mick Price, the galloper's handler, admits that the distance is the big query and he wants Newitt to ride what he termed "a proper staying race" to give him every chance of getting the trip. Price has come close to winning the Victorian Derby many times during a 20-year-plus training career without succeeding, and is hopeful that Moonovermanhattan can help him break his duck.
At Moonee Valley last week, Newitt sat just outside the leader and then took the lead to kick clear, defying the others to run him down. Those tactics suited the Valley, says Price, but they might not be right over the longer distance on the expansive galloping track that is Flemington.
"He's had the preparation which would allow him to run it out, if it's in him. The ride last week suited Moonee Valley, but I have spoken to Craig and we want to do it differently this time.
"Our expectations are that if we can get to the first corner just off the speed and get cover from there. I would like to see him given cover and ridden a proper staying race."
Mick Price's Derby near misses
Kempinsky: second to Elvstroem in 2003
Pre Eminence: third to Rebel Raider in 2008
Soi Cowboy: fourth to Plastered in 2004
Bammagera: fifth to Kibbutz in 2007
King Durham: seventh to Plastered in 2004
