Gambling odds could be more accurate than opinion polls and media reports in this last week of the federal election, despite the betting agencies getting the odds on a Brexit result entirely wrong.
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Betting markets "tend to be more accurate" predictors of election outcomes than polls or macro-economic indicators, according to Professor Ian McAllister at the Australian National University's School of Politics.
"The betting market reports consistently do better and the argument why they do better is related to the fact there is money on the table."
However, the betting odds on the UK leaving in the EU on Friday were completely wrong. SportsBet's odds flipped from paying $9.20 for a "leave" result on Friday morning to $8.80 on "remaining in the EU" by lunchtime.
Professor McAllister said the EU Referendum was very different to normal UK elections, making an outcome hard to call.
SportsBet's odds for the Australian election were determined by a full time political analyst at who examines polling data, seat margins, historical electoral results, and politicians' popularity.
He monitors Twitter and Facebook, but not Snapchat and Instagram, according to SportsBet spokesman Ben Bulmer.
"Media plays a role an a significant role. We all check the media in the morning, but at this stage, with a week to go, the money plays a big role too," he said.
The analyst also gets tipped off whenever money starts flooding in or dries up for a particular candidate.
For example, barely any bets have been placed on Sophie Mirabella winning the seat of Indi since April, when she told a live Sky News Forum that Wangaratta missed out on $10 million in hospital funding because she lost the last election. Her odds of winning have dropped from $3.50 to $11.
In the seat of McEwen, Chris Jermyn's odds started at $1.05 in April and were "neck and neck" based on the seat's tight margin of 0.2 per cent.
But then Mr Jermyn gate-crashed Bill Shorten's press conference on May 29 and was unable to answer simple questions about Liberal policy.
This was followed by a series of embarrassing media articles about his failed business ventures and revelations he does not live in the seat of McEwen, but does like complaining about the Dominos Pizza store in St Kilda.
SportsBet's odds of him winning were $8.50 on Friday.
Similarly Tabcorp had Mr Jermyn's odds at $7.50, compared to $3.40 when betting opened. Meanwhile Rob Mitchell's odds have shortened to $1.06.
Tabcorp's manager of sports wagering, Matt Fisk, said its odds were set by a team of traders who "who are trained in analytics, love their politics and live and breathe the campaign".
"These factors, along with the weight of money coming in, determine how we frame our markets."
