With only a fortnight remaining in the 2016 Super Rugby season, the finals picture is starting to come into focus.
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But, with Week Sixteen containing some absolutely crucial games, it’s likely that by Sunday afternoon there will be a couple more teams pulling the Hawaiian shirts out of the closet, reviewing Bali holiday brochures and getting ready for the end of season trip.
But who will they be?
Let’s have a look at the big questions, and a couple of nice early bets, for Week Sixteen of the Super Rugby season.
Who will blink first in the battle for the Aussie conference?
With the ACT Brumbies and NSW Waratahs locked together on 39 competition points, and only two rounds left in the regular season, the battle for the Australian conference could not be any closer.
This weekend, the Brumbies play first – travelling to Auckland to take on the Blues on Friday night. The bookies have made the Brumbies slight favorites (they are paying $1.77 to win the game, while the Blues are at $2.05) but the line is only -1.5 points, reflecting the closeness of the contest.
Indeed, recent matches in Auckland between these two sides have tended to be very tight with the Blues winning in 2015 (by two points) and the Brumbies taking the chocolates in 2013 (by seven points). Across all venues, the Blues have won three of the last five games between the two teams, while the Brumbies have been beaten in their past four games in New Zealand (including away losses to the Highlanders and Chiefs this season).
The Brumbies deserve favoritism – they play a physical game that focuses on being strong at the breakdown and playing field position, which lines up well against the Blues - but they will know the home team can hurt them from all over the field with their counter-attacking play, and all the pressure is on the Brumbies. Any slip up could be fatal.
By the time the Waratahs play the Hurricanes on Saturday night, in what should be a brilliant game, they will know exactly what they need to do to keep pace with the Brumbies. That could be an advantage, but if the boys from the ACT have secured a bonus point win, the pressure will pile right up on top of the Tahs.
The Waratahs have generally enjoyed welcoming New Zealand teams to Sydney, and have won seven of their last eight regular season home games against the Kiwi sides (the loss being in Round 4 when they went down to the Highlanders 30-26 in a game they could have lost by a lot more).
Both teams need to win to have any chance of winning their respective conference, so will be fired up to play well, and they both enjoy playing entertaining rugby. It is a recipe for a genuine classic.
Early Bet: Our mantra all year has been the same – when in doubt, back the Kiwis! This weekend you can roll the Blues into the Hurricanes at $4.10 and that looks very generous indeed.
Will the Kiwis really have four teams in the Finals?
Given the nature of the conference system – in which the four conference winners and the next four best performing sides overall make the top eight - it seems extraordinary that half the Super Rugby finalists could come from one country. But that is exactly what we are looking at this season.
As it stands, four Kiwi teams are in the Finals picture – the Chiefs (46 points) as conference winners, and the Crusaders (45 points), Hurricanes (44 points) and Highlanders (43) among the next best four teams overall.
Realistically, for all four teams to make the finals they need to stay ahead of the Waratahs (39 points) and Sharks (35 points). Given these two sides can, at best, finish on 49 and 45 points respectively, it seems that one more win each will be enough for the Kiwi sides to hang onto a spot in the top eight (assuming the Chiefs are already over the line).
The Crusaders should feel confident of beating the Rebels, and the Highlanders should take care of Los Jaguares, so those two teams will probably be assured of finals footy by the end of the weekend.
That leaves the Hurricanes, who face the Waratahs in Sydney this week, and the Crusaders in Christchurch next week, needing to win at least one of those games to qualify.
Their season is on a knife edge, but I am certainly not going to tell you they can’t do it!
Early Bet: The Jaguares looked strong last weekend, beating a plucky Bulls team by 29-11. But this weekend will be a different matter altogether, as they welcome the reigning champion Highlanders to Argentina. Get on the Highlanders to cover the -5.5 points start as soon as possible, because it will NOT last.
This article first appeared on TopBetta HERE.