Federal Budget 2022: The political pitch with public money

Finally, after all the faux campaigning and dropping a few billion in the daily pre-budget cash splashes, the thundering populist push from the Coalition to secure your vote with your money is here.

This is no ordinary budget, not just because it is Australia's third pandemic budget and there is an eye-watering but shrinking $78 billion deficit. The economic emergency is over. This is a blueprint for the hearts and minds of voters with a one-off hand-out now offered to ease cost-of-living pressures.

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Around six weeks out from a likely polling date, this a political pitch with public money.

The budget walks this tightrope: to start the long road to pulling the government purse strings back into line while appearing to respond to Australians who want action, not least at the petrol bowser.

We have, as expected, a halving of the fuel excise over the next six months, tax relief for 10 million low-to-middle income earners and a one-off $250 payment for 6 million Australians on income support.

There's budget targeting of tradies, small businesses, aspirational home owners and people in our regions.

The big Coalition trouble spot, women, are also particular beneficiaries. However women's groups say the Morrison government has come from a low base.

But it is important to remember that this budget is not landing. It is being parked. The big skills pre-budget announcement was just an extension of the current apprenticeships scheme for another three months.

The government does not have enough time to pass what Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has just announced before the election, but it will have to introduce a supply bill to ensure normal government services, like paying public servants, can continue until Parliament returns down the track.

All the measures laid out on Tuesday are either a matter for the next Coalition term or may be ripped apart by an incoming Labor government.

The ALP have flagged they could unpick it all with Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers suggesting Labor would bring down a fresh budget before year's end.

Before it was handed down, Labor Leader Anthony Albanese dismissed it as "just a political announcement" and asked "why should we seek it seriously?"

Why?

Away from the theatre of politics, the character assessments, unpredictable events, popularity and irretrievable unpopularity, this budget is the big test of whether a political party can manage the economy, and more broadly, just being in government.

The market will have its view, so will the pundits and as will the people.

The economy has come through COVID-19 remarkably well despite large scale economy-wide emergency support. Unemployment is now down to four per cent and Tuesday's budget forecasts it will go lower still. Real GDP is forecast to grow by 4.25 per cent in 2012-22.

There will of course be more to come from the Coalition during the campaign, but this budget is the principal Liberal-Nationals pitch to you.

So Prime Minister, call the election and let the voters decide. Will it be enough for a fourth term? Or will a risk be taken with the other guys?

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