Likely dates for the federal election and why Easter school holidays are in play

In short, the federal election has to be held by May 17, 2025.

This is because House of Representatives terms are for three years. The current term will expire on July 25, 2025. Half of the senators' terms will also expire on June 30, 2025.

Charles Sturt University political science professor Dominic O'Sullivan told ACM it would be "extraordinarily unpopular" for the federal government to call half a senate election in May and then a House of Representatives election "a month or two later".

With this in mind, once you factor in various practicalities (such as swearing-in), the latest date the next federal election could be held is May 17, 2025.

The best bet is between March and May this year.

This is because there is a minimum of 33 days between the parliament being dissolved and the writs for the election issued and the election being held.

Easter and school holidays are slated from around April 7 to April 29. Professor O'Sullivan said this would rule out most of April.

"There is no constitutional reason why elections can't be held in the school holidays," he said.

"But while voters regard voting as very important and take it seriously, they also regard it as a nuisance and it is not something they want to do when they are with their kids."

The West Australian state election is in March which makes a March election also unlikely.

"Given the importance of Western Australia to the government's majority - it holds a couple of seats it didn't expect to win at the last election, that's what got it over the line to form a majority government - clashing with the state campaign would be a political risk for the federal government."

This leaves May as the most likely option, according to Professor O'Sullivan.

But Redbridge director and former Liberal strategist Tony Barry told ACM April 12 was the most likely option.

"With early voting now being so common and making up 50 per cent of the votes cast, the orthodoxy of not holding it over the school holidays no longer applies," he said.

Mr Barry told ACM the state of the economy would influence the election outcome.

"Who has the best economic credentials?" he said. "Who is going to relieve the acute economic stress people are experiencing?"

He said Mr Albanese as the incumbent, like most incumbents around the world, was losing that battle.

The next two Reserve Bank of Australia meetings on February 18 and April 1 will determine whether there is an interest rate cut.

That could help the government, Mr Barry said.

"I don't think they are banking the house on it but it would be a bonus if it were to occur on the second day of early."

Mr Dutton would need roughly 19 seats to win - which is difficult but not impossible.

Mr Barry predicts a minority Labor government but acknowledged the electorate was unpredictable.

"The campaign will matter a lot, the performance of the leaders, and their ability to communicate on salient issues, is going to influence the results," he said.

The latest polling by YouGov showed the Coalition leading Labor 51 per cent to 49 on a two-party preferred basis.