Federal Election 2025: The marginal seats that will decide the election

The election has to be held on or before May 17. Most expect it will be on April 12.

A first-term federal government hasn't been kicked out of office since 1931.

The Coalition needs 19 seats for a majority government and the polls suggest the race is tightening.

Election analyst and founder of the Tally Room, Ben Raue told ACM there was an "increasing urban-rural divide".

"The Labor government that got elected in 2022 has a lot fewer regional seats than the Rudd government in 2007," he said.

"Every generation, the left is a bit more urbanised, and the right is a bit more rural."

"The teal victories in 2022 added to that."

The polling suggests the swing to the Coalition is bigger in regional and outer suburban areas than closer to the city.

"This means that Labor electorates on bigger margins in regional areas could be in play," he said.

New South Wales has the largest number of regional seats that could decide the election.

The Central Coast seats of Robertson (2.2 per cent) and Dobell (6.6 per cent), and the South Coast seat of Gilmore (0.2 per cent) are all held by Labor and keenly in the Liberal's sights.

In the Hunter, the Coalition is focused on three Labor-held seats: Paterson (2.6 per cent), Hunter (4.8 per cent) and nearby Shortland (6.0) per cent.

"In Paterson, Labor has lost Kurri Kurri in the redistribution, which is very Labor," Mr Raue said.

"In 2022, the whole of NSW swung to Labor, but Paterson didn't."

The Coalition is concerned about Cowper, which covers the regional centres of Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour.

Nationals MP Pat Conaghan holds the seat on a margin of 2.4 per cent after a strong challenge from Climate 200-backed Caz Heise in 2022. She is contesting again.

The Nationals are hopeful of snatching back Calare (9.7 per cent) after Andrew Gee left the party to become an independent over the party's position on the Voice.

Nationals leader David Littleproud told ACM the majority of resources would be going to Calare, Cowper, Lingiari as well as the newly-created Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel.

Eden-Monaro, once considered a bellwether seat, is one to watch too.

Labor's Kristy McBain holds the seat on a 6.1 per cent margin.

The seat of Macquarie, which covers the Blue Mountains, could also be interesting. It is held by Labor MP Susan Templeman on a margin of 6.3 per cent.

Labor currently holds all three lower house seats in the ACT comfortably.

Fenner is on a margin of 15.7 per cent, Bean is on a margin 12.9 per cent and Canberra is on a margin of 12.2 per cent.

Victoria is considered a key battleground state.

The Coalition starts from a low base, only holding 10 of the state's 39 federal seats.

Charles Sturt University political science professor Dominic O'Sullivan said Victoria has traditionally been a very good state for Labor.

"But its state government is unpopular and while the conventional thinking is that voters distinguish between state and federal issues, it isn't always the case," he said.

"Scott Morrison's personal unpopularity was also a factor in 2022, especially among female voters."

The sizable swing against Victorian Labor in the Werribee by-election, in an area considered Labor heartland, will buoy Coalition hopes.

The Liberals are hoping to win back McEwen (held by Labor on 3.8 per cent) which covers Melbourne's outer north towards central Victoria.

Corangamite on the outskirts of Geelong could also be picked up by the Coalition. Labor holds it currently by 7.8 per cent.

The Liberals will be keeping an eye on Dan Tehan's seat of Wannon with former Triple J presenter Alex Dyson challenging again as an independent. The once-safe Liberal seat is now on a margin of 3.8 per cent.

Monash, held by the Liberals on a margin of 2.9 per cent, will be competitive after MP Russell Broadbent left the party after losing preselection to Mary Aldred. He will contest the seat as an independent. The outspoken MP narrowly beat independent Deb Leonard in 2022 who is also running again.

The Coalition sees Bendigo as an outside chance. While considered a safe Labor seat (11.2 per cent) Nationals candidate Andrew Lethlean, a small business owner, has been campaigning hard for 10 months. The Liberal candidate, Matt Evans, is a former deputy mayor. The pair are hoping to work together to snatch it over Labor through preferences.

Liberal Bridget Archer will face a battle in Bass on a margin of 1.4 per cent.

In neighboring Braddon incumbent Liberal Gavin Pearce will retire at the election.

While the Liberals hold the seat with an eight per cent margin, Senator Anne Urquhart is the Labor candidate and is considered strong.

Former state Labor leader Rebecca White is Labor's candidate for Lyons. Labor holds the seat on a margin of 0.9 per cent.

Pollster Kos Samaras told ACM Labor has suffered gradual brand attrition in central northern Tasmania.

"We expect them to lose Lyons," he said.

"The only seat they seem to be comfortably holding onto at a federal level is Franklin.

"Northern Tasmania is one of the strongest examples of the long-term decline of Labor in regional Australia.

"Regional voting habits are mirroring what we are seeing in outer Sydney and Melbourne where inflation is hurting badly."

The far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt could be in play with high-profile Liberal MP, Warren Entsch, retiring. The Liberals currently hold it by 3.4 per cent.

The three-cornered race (Labor, Nationals, Liberal) in the new West Australian seat Bullwinkel is one to watch. Labor notionally holds Bullwinkel with a 3.35 per cent margin.

Lingiari, in the Northern Territory, one of the largest electorates in the country, is expected to be line-ball. First-term Labor MP Marion Scymgour holds it on a slim margin of 1.7 per cent.

Mr Samaras said Ms Scymgour, despite being a first-term MP, which usually receives a 'sophomore surge', could definitely lose her seat.

"That's a part of Australia that is really suffering because of the cost of living," he said.

As for who will win the election? Mr Samaras said it is too early to tell.

He predicted the Coalition to pick up six seats (Lingiari, Aston, Bullwinkel, Bennelong, Gilmore and Robertson) with 12-14 at this point too close to call.

"It will be the closest race we have seen so far because of the fragmenting of the two-party vote," he said.